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Ag Economist's Monthly Monitor

The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor survey is administered by Farm Journal. Questions are sent to agricultural economists nationwide to gauge perspectives on important drivers of agriculture and provide unique and timely insights that affect stakeholders at all levels of the industry with the results being posted on Ag Web.

The value of Monthly Monitor

Participants in the Monthly Monitor survey are carefully selected to represent both academic and industry perspectives from across the United States. The first of its kind, the survey harvests insight from individuals with expertise in crop, livestock, policy and agricultural finance. The economists provide insights into agricultural economic health and views on market trends through crop and livestock production forecasts, farm income expectations, as well as pre-USDA report estimates. The survey is anonymous, a key factor what makes this survey so valuable.

The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor is a survey of nationally recognized economists representing multiple universities, commodity groups and private organizations and companies spanning multiple geographic regions. This diversity allows for expertise in a variety of crop, livestock and policy sectors.

The Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF) and the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri support the Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor survey as it provides farms, ranches and agribusinesses a glimpse into expert economist opinion on the current and future states of agricultural markets, domestically and abroad. RaFF and FAPRI team members are enthusiastic about the future of the Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor and the opportunity the survey affords for economists of varying expertise to share their views with a broader audience.

Economists were asked their biggest concerns regarding the outlook of U.S. agriculture. The responses varied based on crops and livestock, but in general, the Monthly Monitor revealed the biggest concerns include:

• Increased input prices
• Abnormal weather patterns (including drought)
• Export demand and geopolitical risks
• Margin squeeze for producers
• Increased interest rates
• Regulatory pressures negative impact on demand.

To view more in-depth coverage from the first Monthly Monitor, visit AgWeb.com

May 2025

Economists Fear Trade War Will Push Agriculture Deeper Into a Recession

Agriculture is an export dependent business. At peak uncertainty, the industry could go either way: Gain ground with new trade deals or take a big hit as exports further decline.
April 2025

New Warning Signs Agriculture Is In A Recession

The March Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor found 62% of ag economists think the row crop side of agriculture is currently in a recession, and 85% think the situation will accelerate consolidation on farms and among agribusinesses.
March 2025

92% of Ag Economists Say the U.S. is Already in the Middle of Another Trade War

The majority of respondents in the March Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor agree the U.S. is currently in a trade war, but who wins? Ag economists say it’s not the U.S., Canada or Mexico but rather Brazil that could come out on top.
February 2025

10 Charts to Explain What’s Shaping the Ag Economy to Start 2025

From tariffs and trade to the possible impact of President Donald Trump’s plan to cut regulations and taxes, ag economists surveyed in the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor weigh in on the main factors driving the ag economy in 2025.
February 2025

Do Tariffs Work? The Answer Isn’t As Straightforward As You Might Think

Trump recently signed three executive orders imposing tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. This marks the first time a president has used powers granted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977.
January 2025

10 Understated Things Economists Say Could Impact Agriculture in the New Year

From trade and deregulation to alternative land uses and cash rent prices, ag economists have no shortage of issues on their radar for 2025.
December 2024

Majority of Ag Economists say U.S. Agriculture is Ending the Year in a Recession

The eroding health of the overall farm economy was the emphasis of the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, which is a survey of nearly 70 leading agricultural economists from across the country.
November 2024

A Possible Recession Still Hangs Over the Ag Economy, But Positive Shifts Are Starting to Surface

The October Monthly Monitor reflects cautious optimism in certain areas of agriculture, marked by export strengths and potential price recoveries, but shadowed by long-term rebuilding challenges, weather dependencies and the impact of the upcoming election.
October 2024

2024 Could Go Down as the Worst Financial Year for Farmers Since 2007

As agriculture faces multiple challenges, USDA’s latest net farm income forecast is masking the reality for farmers. While livestock margins have improved for 2024, high input costs and below breakeven prices for row crops means margins could be the worst in nearly 20 years.
August 2024

More Than 50% of Ag Economists Now Think the U.S. Ag Economy is Already In a Recession

U.S. corn prices hit a four-year low as the prospect for record corn and soybean crops takes shape in the field. The eroding outlook also appeared in the August Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor.
June 2024

Leading Ag Economists Weigh In On the Biggest Headwinds And Opportunities For the Ag Economy in the Months Ahead

Ag economists are growing more negative regarding the financial health of the crops sector of agriculture, but their views on livestock is becoming more positive, according to latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor.
May 2024

As Farmers Look to Cut Costs for 2025, Machinery and Technology Could Take the Biggest Hit

Commodity prices have seen a bit of a rebound over the past month, but even with optimism beginning to surface with prices, agricultural economists think net farm income could fall more than expected, and the fallout could be felt with just how much farmers scale back what they purchase over the next year.